Raleigh, NC – With less than 60 days until ballots begin arriving in some North Carolinians’ mailboxes, the latest voter registration data shows significant shifts in the makeup of North Carolina’s electorate.
According to current data from the John Locke Foundation’s Voter Registration Changes page, North Carolina Democratic Party registrations are down 1.85%, while registrations for the Republican Party of North Carolina are up 2.38% from July 2020. Among North Carolina’s 100 counties, Democratic registrations have seen declines of varying amounts in 91 counties, while Republican registrations have experienced slight growth in 93 counties from July 2020 to July 2024.
“North Carolina is experiencing rapid political shifts, which means that the state is politically different from what it was just four years ago,” reads a recent report by Dr. Andy Jackson, Director of the Civitas Center for Public Integrity at Locke. “While voter registration numbers are far from being the only factor influencing election results, especially with the rise of unaffiliated voters, they are correlated with election results. They indicate a decline in the fortune of Democrats and shifting patterns of support for both parties within North Carolina.”
Democratic registrations are declining in rural and suburban counties, while slightly expanding their traditional dominance in urban areas, particularly Wake and Mecklenburg counties. Meanwhile, Republicans are rising in the suburbs surrounding the metro centers.
Most significantly, unaffiliated registrations are outpacing all others across the state, growing by nearly half a million voters since 2020, about a 7% increase. In left-leaning Wake County, the plurality of voters are now registered as unaffiliated, compared to a Democratic majority as recently as 2020.
Naturally, the NCGOP deemed the shift a “stunning rebuke” of Democrats in North Carolina, closing the gap by over 500,000 registered voters since 2016. Matt Mercer, Communications Director of the NC Republican Party, says the party is registering more voters in an overwhelming majority of counties because their “policies and candidates are superior to Democrats.”
Nevertheless, the Democratic Party has recently initiated efforts to target rural North Carolinian voters with small-town visits. Democratic leaders have traveled across the state in recent months to drum up support in rural communities. Initial indications, though, don’t offer much hope for Democrats to reverse the trend.
A pivotal question is which way unaffiliated voters ultimately lean. A total of nine counties flipped in 2024 to predominantly Unaffiliated voters since 2020, when they maintained a plurality of either Republican or Democratic voters.
The GOP believes its message resonates with Unaffiliated voters, but the Democratic Party’s drop in registrations indicates left-leaning voters are more heavily switching to Unaffiliated.
“We see several data points that show [unaffiliated voters] are receptive to Republicans’ message of a strong economy, public safety, and school choice,” Mercer said. “In the March primary this year with competitive races in both parties, Unaffiliated voters by a near 2-1 margin pulled a Republican ballot.”
The NC Democratic Party did not respond to Carolina’s Journal’s request for comment.