Raleigh, NC – A new draft congressional map was posted Thursday evening on the NC General Assembly website, along with supporting documents and a public comment portal. This comes ahead of legislative efforts scheduled for next week to reshape the state’s eastern congressional districts. The draft map shifts District 1 farther south and east while carving District 3 inland.
Documents posted online with the new draft map show that it draws geographical lines by population down to the individual person, listing a population deviation of 0 or -1 in each of the state’s 14 congressional districts.
Dr. Andy Jackson, director of the Civitas Center for Public Integrity at the John Locke Foundation, analyzed the proposal in a blog post Thursday evening, finding that the map could make Democratic CD-1 lean more Republican, but Republican CD-3 more competitive.
Under the draft, the First Congressional District, currently represented by Democrat Don Davis, would lose parts of the northeastern counties that have anchored its Democratic base and absorb more conservative territory to the south. Meanwhile, District 3, which now stretches along much of the coast, would take in more moderate areas, potentially softening its Republican advantage.
“It does so by moving Beaufort, Carteret, Craven, Dare, Hyde, and Pamlico counties from the Third District to the First District and shifting Greene, Lenoir, Wayne, and Wilson counties from the First District to the Third District,” Jackson explained.
Still, Jackson said that it may not mean a slam dunk for Republicans as other districts become more competitive.
“Republicans will probably win both seats,” Jackson said. “However, given the political tides, incumbent Democrat Don Davis has a shot at holding on in the First District, and Democrats could make things interesting against Third District Congressman Greg Murphy if they can nominate a strong candidate.”
North Carolina’s 14-seat congressional delegation currently consists of 10 Republican-dominant districts, three Democratic-dominant districts, and one swing district (NC-1), which is currently held by Davis, a Democrat. But GOP leaders have said they aim for an 11–3 split with this redraw. Because the governor cannot veto congressional maps, the legislature can finalize the plan without Democratic support.
Republican lawmakers, including Senate Leader Phil Berger and House Speaker Destin Hall, argue the new map is needed to protect partisan balance nationally and to counter Democratic redistricting moves in other states. In 2019, the US Supreme Court left partisan gerrymandering efforts to the state, ruling in Rucho v. Common Cause that federal courts would not weigh in on such cases.
The General Assembly is scheduled to reconvene on Monday, with the Senate’s standing Committee on Elections expected to vote on the proposed map at 10am. There will be a public comment period, and the committee is taking public comment ahead of the meeting through an online portal.
The House has six veto overrides on the calendar.